The past few months have been excruciating to endure as an election spectator. The prevailing narrative has been that Democrats are rebounding because of Dobbs, despite every historical principle pointing to a Republican victory in November. Election modelers have even begun including phony PAC polls into their averages to create even more ridiculousness.
Since most prominent pollsters continue to employ registered voter screens rather than likely voter screens, which results in a projection of a supportive climate for Democrats, it is certainly garbage in, garbage out.
Even though it happened in 2010, 2014, and 2018, you’re meant to think that the significant GOP turnout advantage during the primaries won’t carry over to the general election. Furthermore, despite the fact that presidential approval has historically been important in midterm elections, you are expected to assume that it is no longer important.
ABC/WP POLL: Republicans hold 5 point lead over Democrats on generic congressional ballot among likely Voters (09/18-21)— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 25, 2022
Republicans 51% (+5)
Democrats 46%https://t.co/rL40qh8M1V pic.twitter.com/mVvKNUs0YI
In other words, you should disregard all you know about politics and elections because, according to a registered voter study by Pollsters Inc., the electorate will be D+8. However, as I said back in the summer, the narrative will change once large posters are displayed on screens in front of potential voters.
Finally, it should be noted that the big pollsters have not yet begun using probable voter screens. Republican excitement is high, as seen by comparisons of primary turnout, thus probable voter screens should further tilt these results in the GOP’s favor, and they often do.
ABC/WP POLL: GOP holds 5-POINT lead among likely Voters (51R-46D)— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 25, 2022
Which party do you trust to handle:
GOP — 54% (+17)
Dem — 37%
GOP — 54% (+18)
Dem — 36%
GOP — 56% (+22)
Dem — 34%
908 RV | 09/18-21 | ±3.5%https://t.co/rL40qh8M1V
As expected, ABC/WaPo has released its first significant production of the season, and it has Democrats fuming and once more disliking polls. On the general election ballot, Republicans have a huge five-point lead over Democrats. Only 39% of people support Joe Biden.
That none of the fundamentals matter in the face of a collapsing stock market, exorbitant inflation, skyrocketing interest rates, an apparent border crisis, and a collapsing White House is what election rating websites like Cook Political and 538 want to convince you of. It somehow adds up to a Democrat turnout advantage that Republicans have a double-digit lead on the one topic voters feel is most important.